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Economic outlook for 2016

Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist at AMP Capital is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds. He provides economic forecasts and analysis of key variables and issues affecting, or likely to affect, all asset markets. In this article ge reviews the economic outlook for 2016. SMH Article 13-1-2016 Asset class views Short term (next few months) Medium term (next 1-3 years) Global equities Expect volatility to remain high into the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting, followed by seasonal strength. The cyclical bull market likely has further to go due to attractive valuations against bonds, ‘not too hot/not too cold’ global growth, a lack of investor euphoria and easy monetary conditions but we remain vigilant to any deterioration in fundamentals. Australian Equities Expect volatility to remain high into the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting, followed by seasonal strength. A continuing cyclical bull market globally and low interest rates, the boost to profits from [...]

By |2019-03-12T11:25:39+11:00January 21st, 2016|Market News|0 Comments

Investment clock lingers in equity-friendly overheat

The investment clock approach generates growth and inflation readings based on past trends and current momentum of lead indicators, to help forecast how the global economy may perform in the coming three to six months. The investment clock is spending a seventh month in the equity-friendly overheat phase though only just as global growth is neither accelerating or slowing and inflation signals are weak. To find out more read this.

By |2016-01-21T01:20:19+11:00January 20th, 2016|Market News, Tips and Other News|0 Comments

It’s inevitable… the dollar is going lower

Last week on the same day as the RBA decided to leave cash rates steady the ABS released Australia’s latest trade data. The August numbers confirmed that the slide in Australia’s trade performance continues unabated and the devaluation of the $A has at this point not offset the dramatic fall in our commodity export prices. The table below shows that over the last 6 months Australia has racked up a trade deficit over $16.5 billion. The prior 6 months had recorded a deficit of about $8 billion. The deterioration by of over 100% or $8 billion in just 6 months is alarming given the 15% depreciation of the $A against the $US over the same period. Simply stated the $A has not devalued enough to make Australia competitive in international trade. The current annual trade deficit run rate of over $30 billion will ensure that Australia’s current account (which includes net interest paid on foreign debt) will stay firmly in the red [...]

By |2019-03-12T11:25:40+11:00October 14th, 2015|Market News|0 Comments
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